@Article{ViolaMelChoYanGom:2014:AsClCh,
author = "Viola, M. R. and Mello, C. R. de and Chou, Sin Chan and Yanagi, S.
N. and Gomes, Jorge Lu{\'{\i}}s",
affiliation = "{} and {} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}
and {} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Assessing climate change impacts on Upper Grande River Basin
hydrology, Southeast Brazil",
journal = "International Journal of Climatology",
year = "2014",
volume = "1",
pages = "n/a-n/a",
keywords = "Eta model, hydrological simulation, climate change, A1B scenario,
run-off components, LASH model.",
abstract = "Brazilian electric power is mostly based on hydraulics sources
through hydropower plant reservoirs that are fed by rivers located
in Southeast Brazil. Possible changes in climate can affect the
energy supply of the country. The objective of this work is to
assess the possible changes in the hydrology of the Upper Grande
River Basin (UGRB) under a future climate change scenario, using
the Lavras Simulation of Hydrology (LASH) model forced by the
outputs of the Eta model, a regional climate model, which was
driven by HadCM3 A1B scenario for three time slices in the period
between 2011 and 2099. Owing to the surface heterogeneity of the
region, the hydrologic model was previously calibrated for four
watersheds of the UGRB, which are located in its headwater region
and evaluated against observational time series of the present
climate period, 19611990. In the first future time slice,
20112040, the results showed a small reduction in the annual
run-off, but for the other time slices, the trend changed to
strong increase in most of the watersheds. The water budget in the
region calculated from the Eta model agreed with the run-off
trends, as water excess reduced in the first time slice and
gradually increased towards the end of the century. The run-off
components showed intraseasonal variability. The reduction of
rains in the end of winter, the dry period in the region, and in
the beginning of spring, may cause a change in the dynamics of the
groundwater recharge, affecting the base flow, which can extend
and intensify the flow recession period, and therefore affect the
availability of water resources. On the other hand, the increase
of rains during the summer, the rainy season of the region, caused
an increase of the direct surface run-off, which can modify the
flood regimes of the rivers in the region.",
doi = "10.1002/joc.4038",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4038",
issn = "0899-8418",
label = "lattes: 4336175279058172 3 ViolaMelChaYanGom:2014:AsClCh",
language = "pt",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}